Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 46.4%). Look for Fraser on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Jones wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Fraser shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 47.3% vs Fraser 46.7% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jones 51.7%
Defensive zone
Fraser 51.7%
Neutral zone
Jones 52.8%
Result
Blair Jones favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Jones
Fraser
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Jones
Fraser
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jones
1
0
Jones
Fraser
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
2
Jones
Fraser
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Fraser
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (494)
48.0% (1,036)
+0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
58.3% (36)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (62)
35.8% (187)
-3.5%
On power play, Fraser has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fraser shoots left. Jones is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Jones shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Home / Away
Jones
Fraser
Home
48.9% (272)
48.6% (661)
Away
45.0% (311)
44.0% (602)
By Period
Jones
Fraser
P1
47.1%
46.7%
P2
49.7%
46.4%
P3
44.8%
46.2%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.7%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:38 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Blair Jones |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 09:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |