Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 47.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Jones 89.3%
Defensive zone
Jones 86.1%
Neutral zone
Jones 85.3%
Result
Blair Jones favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Jones
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Jones
Pavelski
Last 10: Jones 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Jones
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Jones
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jones
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (494)
53.6% (8,791)
-5.0%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
58.2% (2,122)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (62)
50.9% (1,138)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jones is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Jones shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Jones
Pavelski
Home
48.9% (272)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
45.0% (311)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Jones
Pavelski
P1
47.1%
53.5%
P2
49.7%
55.2%
P3
44.8%
53.9%
OT
25.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
43.7%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2014 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 08:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |