Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 44.3% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-16.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Jones 89.1%
Defensive zone
Jones 85.4%
Neutral zone
Jones 89.8%
Result
Blair Jones favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Jones
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Jones
Pavelski
Last 10: Jones 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Jones
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
5
Jones
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Jones
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (243)
57.8% (569)
-15.0%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
60.2% (161)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (41)
59.5% (121)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jones is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Jones shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Jones
Pavelski
Home
48.3% (149)
61.0% (403)
Away
36.6% (153)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Jones
Pavelski
P1
42.6%
62.9%
P2
48.3%
56.6%
P3
38.3%
57.1%
OT
28.6%
57.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
42.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 08:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |