Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jones wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 47.3% vs Thornton 54.3% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 69.5%
Defensive zone
Jones 55.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 53.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Jones
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Jones
Thornton
Last 6: Jones 3-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Jones
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jones
3
0
Jones
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (494)
53.5% (6,640)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
57.2% (1,387)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (62)
56.7% (427)
-24.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Jones is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Jones shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Jones
Thornton
Home
48.9% (272)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
45.0% (311)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Jones
Thornton
P1
47.1%
55.0%
P2
49.7%
53.3%
P3
44.8%
54.4%
OT
25.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
43.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 12:30 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |