Scouting Report
Ryan Carter holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Jones on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jones wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Carter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 47.3% vs Carter 49.8% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 60.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 61.3%
Result
Ryan Carter favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Jones
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Jones
Carter
Last 9: Jones 6-3 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jones
2
1
Jones
Carter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jones
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jones
3
1
Jones
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (494)
50.1% (978)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
60.0% (15)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (62)
46.4% (138)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Jones is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Jones shoots right. Carter is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (404).
Home / Away
Jones
Carter
Home
48.9% (272)
49.0% (506)
Away
45.0% (311)
50.3% (632)
By Period
Jones
Carter
P1
47.1%
50.5%
P2
49.7%
48.9%
P3
44.8%
50.0%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 18:35 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Ryan Carter |
| Dec 12, 2011 | 2 | 17:16 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Blair Jones |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Blair Jones |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Blair Jones |