Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 49.3%). Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.1% vs McKegg 49.5% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 57.5%
Defensive zone
McKegg 51.2%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 57.3%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Lizotte
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lizotte
McKegg
Last 5: Lizotte 3-2 McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
1
0
Lizotte
McKegg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
0
1
Lizotte
McKegg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
McKegg
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (549)
48.9% (184)
+1.4%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
62.5% (8)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (50)
47.4% (19)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, McKegg has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. Lizotte is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (426).
Lizotte shoots left. McKegg is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Lizotte
McKegg
Home
48.5% (336)
50.0% (112)
Away
52.1% (286)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Lizotte
McKegg
P1
48.2%
42.4%
P2
54.1%
55.4%
P3
47.1%
49.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.2%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2020 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 9, 2020 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |