Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 45.3% vs Aho 51.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 94.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 59.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 66.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Groulx
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
Aho
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Groulx
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Groulx
3
0
Groulx
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
1
0
Groulx
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (371)
50.1% (6,619)
-4.0%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
58.9% (1,310)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
36.9% (84)
46.3% (464)
-9.4%
On power play, Aho has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Groulx is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Groulx shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Groulx
Aho
Home
49.8% (241)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
38.3% (222)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Groulx
Aho
P1
45.3%
51.1%
P2
44.8%
52.0%
P3
42.9%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
48.0%▲
42.5%
44.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |