Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (94% H2H, 16 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Thornton 54.3% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 41-20 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 63.7%
Defensive zone
Horvat 50.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 66.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Horvat
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
41
(61 meetings)
20
41
Horvat
Thornton
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
16
Horvat
Thornton
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
8
10
Horvat
Thornton
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
15
Horvat
Thornton
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
53.5% (6,640)
+0.4%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
57.2% (1,387)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
56.7% (427)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,714).
Horvat shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Horvat
Thornton
Home
56.0% (8,355)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Horvat
Thornton
P1
54.1%
55.0%
P2
54.4%
53.3%
P3
55.0%
54.4%
OT
49.6%
56.4%
Final 5 min
55.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 01:17 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 05:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 13:30 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2019 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2019 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 11, 2019 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 11, 2019 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2019 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |