Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Ryan wins 38.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 42.9% vs Thornton 54.1% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 79.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 76.5%
Result
Bobby Ryan favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Ryan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Ryan
Thornton
Last 7: Ryan 1-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Thornton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
6
Ryan
Thornton
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (160)
52.8% (922)
-11.5%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
56.1% (196)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (15)
62.0% (100)
-35.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Ryan is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Ryan shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Home / Away
Ryan
Thornton
Home
38.4% (138)
54.9% (597)
Away
42.0% (81)
54.0% (643)
By Period
Ryan
Thornton
P1
33.7%
53.0%
P2
40.3%
51.2%
P3
49.2%
57.8%
OT
0.0%
72.7%
Final 5 min
32.6%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
36.0%▼
38.0%
39.7%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2011 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Bobby Ryan |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |