Scouting Report
Brad Boyes holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Boyes wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyes 48.0% vs Stamkos 45.8% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Boyes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Boyes
Stamkos
Last 5: Boyes 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Boyes
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Boyes
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (246)
45.6% (1,055)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
46.6% (116)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
42.1% (38)
-42.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Boyes is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Boyes shoots right. Stamkos is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Boyes
Stamkos
Home
48.7% (113)
48.4% (636)
Away
46.1% (154)
42.3% (591)
By Period
Boyes
Stamkos
P1
44.3%
45.7%
P2
48.9%
46.8%
P3
48.1%
43.7%
OT
100.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyes
60.0%▲
57.0%
47.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2012 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Brad Boyes |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Brad Boyes |