Scouting Report
Brad Richards holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Richards wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 49.8% vs Nelson 43.7% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Richards
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Richards
Nelson
Last 5: Richards 1-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Richards
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Richards
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Richards
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (950)
42.1% (385)
+7.7%
Power Play
53.6% (69)
47.5% (40)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
38.5% (26)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Richards is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (639).
Richards shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Richards
Nelson
Home
51.1% (532)
43.8% (224)
Away
48.3% (497)
41.0% (227)
By Period
Richards
Nelson
P1
48.6%
48.1%
P2
51.0%
38.4%
P3
49.8%
39.2%
OT
43.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
49.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2014 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2014 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2013 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |