Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.1%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.3% vs Kelly 50.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 19-16 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 75.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 72.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.3%
Result
Brad Richards favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Richards
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
19
(35 meetings)
16
19
Richards
Kelly
Last 10: Richards 9-1 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
11
4
Richards
Kelly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
10
Richards
Kelly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
5
Richards
Kelly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (4,561)
51.1% (3,010)
-0.7%
Power Play
51.0% (512)
60.6% (71)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (92)
44.7% (689)
-3.4%
On power play, Kelly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Richards is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,377).
Richards shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Home / Away
Richards
Kelly
Home
51.1% (2,671)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
49.5% (2,512)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
Richards
Kelly
P1
49.6%
49.2%
P2
50.3%
49.1%
P3
51.0%
51.9%
OT
50.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Feb 12, 2013 | OT | 04:53 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 08:44 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 23, 2013 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 23, 2013 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 23, 2013 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |