Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 48.9%). Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Richards wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 49.8% vs Kelly 49.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 85.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 63.9%
Neutral zone
Richards 55.3%
Result
Brad Richards favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Richards
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Richards
Kelly
Last 8: Richards 7-1 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
5
0
Richards
Kelly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Richards
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
2
0
Richards
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (950)
50.0% (456)
-0.2%
Power Play
53.6% (69)
40.0% (5)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
44.9% (118)
-24.9%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Richards is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (639).
Richards shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Richards
Kelly
Home
51.1% (532)
51.4% (350)
Away
48.3% (497)
45.0% (229)
By Period
Richards
Kelly
P1
48.6%
46.9%
P2
51.0%
53.6%
P3
49.8%
46.8%
OT
43.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
49.8%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Brad Richards |