Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Richards wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.6% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Richards leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 62.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 89.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
Richards
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Richards
Pavelski
Last 10: Richards 7-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
3
1
Richards
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Richards
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
3
1
Richards
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (885)
53.4% (682)
-2.1%
Power Play
50.7% (75)
63.7% (168)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
48.1% (160)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Richards is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Richards shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Richards
Pavelski
Home
49.9% (527)
59.0% (527)
Away
51.4% (463)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Richards
Pavelski
P1
49.2%
50.8%
P2
50.7%
58.9%
P3
52.2%
53.6%
OT
45.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 13, 2010 | OT | 04:51 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 18, 2010 | 1 | 02:39 | Neutral | Brad Richards |