Scouting Report
Brad Richards holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 51.7% vs Ellis 48.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 66.2%
Defensive zone
Ellis 62.9%
Neutral zone
Ellis 52.4%
Result
Brad Richards favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Richards
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Richards
Ellis
Last 9: Richards 4-5 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Richards
Ellis
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Richards
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Richards
Ellis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (1,084)
48.0% (223)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.2% (180)
0.0% (1)
+52.2%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (37)
50.0% (20)
+1.4%
On power play, Richards has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Richards is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (866).
Richards shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Richards
Ellis
Home
52.2% (668)
51.4% (107)
Away
51.4% (648)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Richards
Ellis
P1
50.1%
46.7%
P2
52.4%
47.3%
P3
52.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.3%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
51.8%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 11:34 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |