Scouting Report
Brandon Dubinsky holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dubinsky wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubinsky 52.4% vs Nelson 48.4% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubinsky 57.1%
Defensive zone
Dubinsky 68.9%
Neutral zone
Dubinsky 65.1%
Result
Brandon Dubinsky favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Dubinsky
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dubinsky
Nelson
Last 7: Dubinsky 4-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Dubinsky
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubinsky
2
1
Dubinsky
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dubinsky
1
0
Dubinsky
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubinsky
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (1,114)
49.6% (347)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.0% (166)
20.8% (24)
+35.2%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (204)
52.9% (17)
-0.4%
On power play, Dubinsky has a +35.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Dubinsky is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (928).
Dubinsky shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Dubinsky
Nelson
Home
54.2% (779)
52.9% (210)
Away
50.8% (705)
42.1% (178)
By Period
Dubinsky
Nelson
P1
52.9%
43.9%
P2
56.1%
48.1%
P3
49.0%
53.1%
OT
53.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubinsky
66.0%▲
59.0%
52.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2016 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |