Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.3% vs 58.5%). Look for Dubinsky on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dubinsky wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubinsky 56.8% vs Thornton 57.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.4%
Defensive zone
Dubinsky 51.9%
Neutral zone
Dubinsky 55.6%
Result
Brandon Dubinsky favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Dubinsky
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dubinsky
Thornton
Last 8: Dubinsky 5-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubinsky
2
1
Dubinsky
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dubinsky
3
2
Dubinsky
Thornton
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubinsky
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (310)
57.0% (540)
+1.1%
Power Play
63.6% (77)
64.0% (111)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (52)
62.0% (50)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Dubinsky is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Dubinsky shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Home / Away
Dubinsky
Thornton
Home
56.9% (209)
56.7% (353)
Away
59.6% (230)
60.3% (348)
By Period
Dubinsky
Thornton
P1
62.2%
59.3%
P2
58.9%
60.1%
P3
53.5%
57.1%
OT
77.8%
47.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubinsky
66.0%▲
59.0%
58.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2013 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 16:53 | Neutral | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Feb 11, 2013 | 2 | 09:18 | Neutral | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Feb 11, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 11, 2013 | 1 | 14:15 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Feb 11, 2013 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Feb 11, 2013 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |