Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). McMillan wins 37.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMillan 41.7% vs Duchene 50.4% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.9%
Defensive zone
McMillan 53.0%
Neutral zone
McMillan 51.0%
Result
Brandon McMillan favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
McMillan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
McMillan
Duchene
Last 10: McMillan 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMillan
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMillan
3
1
McMillan
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
6
McMillan
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMillan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
39.5% (248)
50.5% (1,070)
-11.0%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
49.3% (136)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
26.3% (19)
50.0% (20)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McMillan is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (218).
McMillan shoots left. Duchene is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
McMillan
Duchene
Home
36.3% (160)
49.8% (633)
Away
42.1% (133)
51.1% (613)
By Period
McMillan
Duchene
P1
40.7%
51.0%
P2
42.3%
51.5%
P3
34.5%
49.1%
OT
0.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMillan
46.0%▲
38.5%
38.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 02:21 | Neutral | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 14:38 | Defensive | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 08:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Brandon McMillan |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |