Scouting Report
Brandon Sutter holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Sutter wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 54.0% vs Nelson 44.4% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Sutter
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Sutter
Nelson
Last 8: Sutter 3-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Sutter
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sutter
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
3
Sutter
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (1,088)
43.0% (688)
+11.6%
Power Play
59.3% (150)
54.8% (42)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (214)
44.3% (61)
+4.8%
On even strength, Sutter has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Sutter is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,013).
Sutter shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Sutter
Nelson
Home
55.0% (714)
41.9% (391)
Away
53.5% (738)
45.5% (400)
By Period
Sutter
Nelson
P1
54.3%
47.1%
P2
53.1%
43.0%
P3
54.8%
40.9%
OT
63.3%
63.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2017 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 3 | 15:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Nov 7, 2016 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |