Scouting Report
Brandon Sutter holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toffoli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sutter wins 62.2% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 54.6% vs Toffoli 46.1% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 69.9%
Defensive zone
Sutter 88.8%
Neutral zone
Sutter 55.1%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Sutter
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Sutter
Toffoli
Last 6: Sutter 3-3 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
3
Sutter
Toffoli
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
3
0
Sutter
Toffoli
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (390)
40.4% (47)
+15.0%
Power Play
66.7% (12)
33.3% (6)
+33.4%
Penalty Kill
54.7% (95)
0.0% (1)
+54.7%
On penalty kill, Sutter has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Sutter is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Sutter shoots right. Toffoli is 26.3% vs right-shot opponents (19).
Home / Away
Sutter
Toffoli
Home
57.3% (260)
48.0% (25)
Away
53.6% (237)
31.0% (29)
By Period
Sutter
Toffoli
P1
54.4%
36.4%
P2
57.3%
50.0%
P3
54.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
55.5%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2021 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 1 | 17:30 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:11 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |