Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 51.9% vs Kelly 50.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaunce 57.2%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 58.3%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 58.9%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Gaunce
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Gaunce
Kelly
Last 5: Gaunce 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Gaunce
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (894)
51.1% (3,010)
+0.6%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
60.6% (71)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (92)
44.7% (689)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Gaunce has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Gaunce is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Gaunce shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Kelly
Home
49.9% (525)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
54.5% (470)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
Gaunce
Kelly
P1
53.6%
49.2%
P2
47.4%
49.1%
P3
55.0%
51.9%
Final 5 min
54.0%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
52.1%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2016 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 3 | 02:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |