Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaunce wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 50.8% vs Kelly 45.4% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaunce 67.5%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 60.1%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 55.8%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Gaunce
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Gaunce
Kelly
Last 5: Gaunce 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
1
0
Gaunce
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Gaunce
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (156)
47.5% (373)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
83.3% (6)
35.9% (128)
+47.4%
On penalty kill, Gaunce has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Gaunce is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Gaunce shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Kelly
Home
49.4% (85)
47.5% (259)
Away
53.2% (79)
41.3% (242)
By Period
Gaunce
Kelly
P1
55.4%
46.7%
P2
41.1%
42.9%
P3
58.1%
43.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
51.2%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2016 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 3 | 02:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |