Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Connolly wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 43.2% vs Bonino 50.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 60.6%
Defensive zone
Bonino 96.1%
Neutral zone
Bonino 83.7%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 79.7%
20.3%
79.7%
Connolly
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Connolly
Bonino
Last 8: Connolly 6-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
0
Connolly
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
1
Connolly
Bonino
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Connolly
Bonino
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (229)
50.6% (8,315)
-10.4%
Power Play
43.1% (58)
54.1% (972)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.6% (1,693)
+5.4%
On power play, Bonino has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Connolly is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Connolly shoots right. Bonino is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,070).
Home / Away
Connolly
Bonino
Home
42.6% (129)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
39.4% (160)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Connolly
Bonino
P1
41.8%
50.6%
P2
40.0%
48.5%
P3
40.6%
51.1%
Final 5 min
43.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
30.0%▼
38.5%
40.8%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Brett Connolly |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Brett Connolly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brett Connolly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Brett Connolly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Brett Connolly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Brett Connolly |