Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Connolly wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 43.2% vs Novak 43.0% (-1.8%)
Offensive zone
Connolly 58.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 55.5%
Neutral zone
Connolly 50.9%
Result
Brett Connolly favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Connolly
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (229)
41.8% (1,568)
-1.6%
Power Play
43.1% (58)
51.5% (134)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On power play, Novak has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Connolly is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Connolly shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Connolly
Novak
Home
42.6% (129)
45.1% (831)
Away
39.4% (160)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Connolly
Novak
P1
41.8%
43.7%
P2
40.0%
42.8%
P3
40.6%
41.1%
Final 5 min
43.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
30.0%▼
38.5%
40.8%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%