Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rolston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rolston wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rolston 44.6% vs Spezza 54.7% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Rolston leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 78.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 68.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 71.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 73.2%
26.8%
73.2%
Rolston
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Rolston
Spezza
Last 10: Rolston 6-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Rolston
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rolston
4
0
Rolston
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rolston
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rolston
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (146)
54.4% (7,990)
-13.3%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
56.8% (1,726)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (49)
52.7% (643)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Rolston is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Rolston shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Rolston
Spezza
Home
39.6% (106)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
44.3% (106)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Rolston
Spezza
P1
41.7%
55.7%
P2
41.0%
54.4%
P3
43.7%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
38.2%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rolston
50.0%▲
42.5%
42.0%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2012 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Brian Rolston |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Brian Rolston |