Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rolston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rolston wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rolston 49.2% vs Spezza 53.3% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 73.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 56.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 65.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Rolston
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Rolston
Spezza
Last 7: Rolston 4-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Rolston
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rolston
3
0
Rolston
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rolston
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rolston
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (66)
53.8% (1,283)
-5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
52.8% (303)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
49.4% (89)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Rolston is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Rolston shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Home / Away
Rolston
Spezza
Home
45.7% (35)
56.4% (853)
Away
50.0% (42)
50.5% (847)
By Period
Rolston
Spezza
P1
52.2%
53.4%
P2
46.4%
54.2%
P3
46.2%
53.4%
Final 5 min
27.8%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rolston
50.0%▲
42.5%
48.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2012 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Brian Rolston |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |