Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rolston on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rolston wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rolston 44.6% vs Tavares 54.4% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 68.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 78.8%
21.2%
78.8%
Rolston
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Rolston
Tavares
Last 8: Rolston 5-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rolston
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rolston
2
1
Rolston
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rolston
1
0
Rolston
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rolston
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (146)
54.0% (16,108)
-12.9%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
56.5% (4,283)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (49)
50.6% (620)
-11.8%
On even strength, Tavares has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rolston is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Rolston shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Rolston
Tavares
Home
39.6% (106)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
44.3% (106)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Rolston
Tavares
P1
41.7%
55.0%
P2
41.0%
54.1%
P3
43.7%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
38.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rolston
50.0%▲
42.5%
42.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Brian Rolston |
| Mar 30, 2011 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brian Rolston |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 1 | 05:56 | Defensive | Brian Rolston |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Brian Rolston |