Scouting Report
Brandon Dubinsky holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubinsky on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Dubinsky wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubinsky 56.3% vs Nelson 47.8% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Defensive zone
Dubinsky 96.9%
Neutral zone
Dubinsky 85.4%
Result
Brandon Dubinsky favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Dubinsky
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Dubinsky
Nelson
Last 8: Dubinsky 6-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Dubinsky
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubinsky
6
1
Dubinsky
Nelson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubinsky
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
59.5% (627)
47.4% (1,020)
+12.1%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
51.5% (163)
-28.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
42.9% (63)
+5.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Dubinsky is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Dubinsky shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Dubinsky
Nelson
Home
58.0% (383)
51.0% (641)
Away
56.2% (365)
44.1% (605)
By Period
Dubinsky
Nelson
P1
58.3%
48.2%
P2
57.8%
48.1%
P3
55.8%
46.9%
OT
25.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.1%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubinsky
66.0%▲
59.0%
57.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:48 | Defensive | Brandon Dubinsky |