Scouting Report
David Desharnais holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Desharnais on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Desharnais shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Desharnais 50.8% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Nelson
Desharnais
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Desharnais
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Desharnais
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Desharnais
0
1
Nelson
Desharnais
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Desharnais
0
1
Nelson
Desharnais
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Desharnais
1
2
Nelson
Desharnais
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Desharnais
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
50.1% (973)
-8.0%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
57.9% (202)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
25.9% (27)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Desharnais shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Desharnais is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (720).
Home / Away
Nelson
Desharnais
Home
43.8% (224)
52.7% (592)
Away
41.0% (227)
49.0% (610)
By Period
Nelson
Desharnais
P1
48.1%
52.2%
P2
38.4%
52.5%
P3
39.2%
47.7%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Desharnais
56.0%▲
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 18:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 10:43 | Neutral | David Desharnais |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 10:52 | Neutral | David Desharnais |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | David Desharnais |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | David Desharnais |