Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Beagle 56.7% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 29-16 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 91.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 85.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 87.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Nelson
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
29
(45 meetings)
16
29
Nelson
Beagle
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Beagle
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
11
Nelson
Beagle
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
11
Nelson
Beagle
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
57.5% (4,994)
-9.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
60.5% (119)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
54.2% (1,554)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beagle
Home
50.0% (5,845)
59.1% (3,228)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.5% (3,443)
By Period
Nelson
Beagle
P1
48.7%
57.4%
P2
48.5%
57.1%
P3
47.7%
56.2%
OT
45.6%
41.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 01:06 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 13:29 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 16:33 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 17:17 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |