Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Beagle 55.2% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Nelson
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Beagle
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Beagle
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
3
Nelson
Beagle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
58.1% (284)
-14.2%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
33.3% (3)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
52.6% (97)
-11.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Beagle is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beagle
Home
42.9% (406)
57.9% (183)
Away
45.8% (393)
55.2% (201)
By Period
Nelson
Beagle
P1
44.1%
54.7%
P2
47.2%
62.1%
P3
42.2%
50.9%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 2 | 18:19 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 14:00 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |