Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Mitchell 50.8% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 80.8%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 71.3%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 72.8%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Nelson
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Mitchell
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
1
Nelson
Mitchell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Mitchell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Mitchell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
51.2% (666)
-7.3%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
45.5% (22)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
48.9% (47)
-7.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Mitchell is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mitchell
Home
42.9% (406)
51.7% (360)
Away
45.8% (393)
50.1% (375)
By Period
Nelson
Mitchell
P1
44.1%
50.2%
P2
47.2%
49.4%
P3
42.2%
51.9%
OT
30.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 13:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | John Mitchell |