Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 88.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 84.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 85.1%
85.1%
14.9%
Nelson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Nelson
Kesler
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Nelson
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
6
Nelson
Kesler
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
5
Nelson
Kesler
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
56.4% (8,095)
-8.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
60.7% (1,437)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.5% (1,908)
-6.7%
On even strength, Kesler has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kesler
Home
50.0% (5,845)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Nelson
Kesler
P1
48.7%
56.5%
P2
48.5%
55.9%
P3
47.7%
56.1%
OT
45.6%
46.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2018 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | OT | 04:00 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 22, 2016 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 3 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2 | 16:30 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 21, 2015 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 15:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |