Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Kesler 56.0% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Nelson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Nelson
Kesler
Last 6: Nelson 0-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Nelson
Kesler
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Nelson
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Nelson
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
57.4% (1,185)
-13.5%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
58.0% (243)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
49.2% (236)
-7.8%
On even strength, Kesler has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Kesler is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,075).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kesler
Home
42.9% (406)
58.5% (793)
Away
45.8% (393)
54.3% (871)
By Period
Nelson
Kesler
P1
44.1%
57.0%
P2
47.2%
55.4%
P3
42.2%
56.7%
OT
30.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
39.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 15:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 5, 2014 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |