Scouting Report
Travis Zajac holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zajac on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Zajac 53.2% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Nelson
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Zajac
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
1
Nelson
Zajac
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
1
Nelson
Zajac
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zajac
1
2
Nelson
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
53.6% (932)
-9.7%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
55.0% (129)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
50.4% (139)
-9.0%
On even strength, Zajac has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Zajac is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zajac
Home
42.9% (406)
55.8% (661)
Away
45.8% (393)
50.5% (539)
By Period
Nelson
Zajac
P1
44.1%
55.7%
P2
47.2%
50.0%
P3
42.2%
54.1%
OT
30.8%
63.6%
Final 5 min
39.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 07:37 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 15, 2014 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |