Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Backes 50.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 66.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 87.4%
Neutral zone
Backes 75.1%
Result
David Backes favored at 76.8%
23.2%
76.8%
O'Reilly
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
O'Reilly
Backes
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
0
O'Reilly
Backes
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Backes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
0
2
O'Reilly
Backes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
51.1% (5,772)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
50.8% (1,082)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
47.4% (930)
+2.6%
On even strength, Backes has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (309).
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Backes
Home
50.6% (480)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
43.2% (465)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
O'Reilly
Backes
P1
47.1%
50.1%
P2
46.7%
51.5%
P3
46.8%
50.8%
OT
54.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2011 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 05:54 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |