Scouting Report
Cal O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.2% vs Staal 52.7% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 50.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 50.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.3%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
O'Reilly
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
O'Reilly
Staal
Last 5: O'Reilly 5-0 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (98)
52.7% (713)
+0.4%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
57.1% (105)
+6.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (65).
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Staal
Home
56.0% (84)
56.0% (414)
Away
48.0% (25)
50.0% (428)
By Period
O'Reilly
Staal
P1
47.4%
49.0%
P2
60.6%
56.3%
P3
55.3%
53.9%
Final 5 min
46.4%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
54.1%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 00:05 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |