Scouting Report
Jake Dowell holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Dowell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.1% vs Dowell 49.1% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.1%
Defensive zone
Dowell 54.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.5%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
O'Reilly
Dowell
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
O'Reilly
Dowell
Last 5: O'Reilly 0-5 Dowell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
0
1
O'Reilly
Dowell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
0
3
O'Reilly
Dowell
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowell
0
1
O'Reilly
Dowell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Dowell
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (403)
49.9% (573)
-3.7%
Power Play
48.1% (79)
33.3% (12)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
43.8% (64)
+6.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowell shoots left. O'Reilly is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (341).
O'Reilly shoots left. Dowell is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Dowell
Home
48.1% (243)
52.5% (303)
Away
44.9% (254)
45.8% (349)
By Period
O'Reilly
Dowell
P1
43.2%
49.5%
P2
45.6%
47.0%
P3
50.9%
50.7%
OT
42.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
46.5%
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2010 | 3 | 09:14 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 1 | 01:44 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |