Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Arnott 50.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Arnott leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.7%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
O'Reilly
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
O'Reilly
Arnott
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
3
O'Reilly
Arnott
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Arnott
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
2
3
O'Reilly
Arnott
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
49.7% (1,444)
-3.2%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
53.8% (182)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
40.0% (15)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. O'Reilly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (309).
O'Reilly shoots left. Arnott is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Arnott
Home
50.6% (480)
52.1% (891)
Away
43.2% (465)
48.2% (772)
By Period
O'Reilly
Arnott
P1
47.1%
46.1%
P2
46.7%
53.6%
P3
46.8%
50.1%
OT
54.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:44 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 17, 2010 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |