Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 46.2% vs Arnott 50.3% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 50.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.6%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
O'Reilly
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
O'Reilly
Arnott
Last 9: O'Reilly 3-6 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
3
O'Reilly
Arnott
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Arnott
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
2
3
O'Reilly
Arnott
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (238)
50.5% (667)
-6.0%
Power Play
48.3% (29)
49.4% (89)
-1.1%
On even strength, Arnott has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. O'Reilly is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (89).
O'Reilly shoots left. Arnott is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Arnott
Home
50.9% (112)
53.1% (431)
Away
40.4% (156)
46.7% (338)
By Period
O'Reilly
Arnott
P1
56.5%
46.9%
P2
40.4%
52.9%
P3
36.3%
50.4%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
35.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
44.8%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:44 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |