Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Carter 53.2% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.2%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
O'Reilly
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
O'Reilly
Carter
Last 9: O'Reilly 2-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
O'Reilly
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
O'Reilly
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
3
O'Reilly
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
53.3% (8,728)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
57.3% (1,554)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
46.3% (1,087)
+3.7%
On power play, Carter has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (309).
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Carter
Home
50.6% (480)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
43.2% (465)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
O'Reilly
Carter
P1
47.1%
53.6%
P2
46.7%
52.8%
P3
46.8%
53.1%
OT
54.5%
56.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 15:56 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 07:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |