Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 46.2% vs Carter 50.7% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 72.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 75.7%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
O'Reilly
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
O'Reilly
Carter
Last 9: O'Reilly 2-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
O'Reilly
Carter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
O'Reilly
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
3
O'Reilly
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (238)
51.0% (565)
-6.5%
Power Play
48.3% (29)
50.0% (188)
-1.7%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (89).
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (509).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Carter
Home
50.9% (112)
52.3% (421)
Away
40.4% (156)
49.0% (353)
By Period
O'Reilly
Carter
P1
56.5%
55.4%
P2
40.4%
49.1%
P3
36.3%
47.6%
OT
75.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
35.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
44.8%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 19:12 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 15:56 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 1 | 07:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |