Scouting Report
Cal O'Reilly holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Adam on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Adam 42.8% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Adam 72.2%
Defensive zone
Adam 71.0%
Neutral zone
Adam 70.8%
Result
Luke Adam favored at 70.8%
29.2%
70.8%
O'Reilly
Adam
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
O'Reilly
Adam
Last 5: O'Reilly 1-4 Adam
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Adam
1
4
O'Reilly
Adam
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Adam
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
40.3% (377)
+6.2%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
50.0% (26)
+0.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Adam shoots left. O'Reilly is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
O'Reilly shoots left. Adam is 38.6% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Adam
Home
50.6% (480)
44.9% (187)
Away
43.2% (465)
37.6% (218)
By Period
O'Reilly
Adam
P1
47.1%
42.1%
P2
46.7%
37.9%
P3
46.8%
43.2%
OT
54.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Adam
44.0%▬
43.5%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 08:04 | Neutral | Luke Adam |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Luke Adam |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Luke Adam |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Luke Adam |