Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Nash 48.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.0%
Defensive zone
Nash 74.1%
Neutral zone
Nash 57.7%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
O'Reilly
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
O'Reilly
Nash
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
2
O'Reilly
Nash
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Nash
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
0
O'Reilly
Nash
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
48.7% (4,621)
-2.2%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
51.0% (249)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
44.9% (550)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. O'Reilly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (309).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nash
Home
50.6% (480)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
43.2% (465)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nash
P1
47.1%
49.0%
P2
46.7%
47.9%
P3
46.8%
48.0%
OT
54.5%
68.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 13:21 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 04:04 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 2 | 13:24 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 1 | 12:03 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 21, 2011 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |