Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +19.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ritchie wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ritchie 39.8% vs Evans 55.4% (-19.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ritchie 92.5%
Defensive zone
Ritchie 55.3%
Neutral zone
Ritchie 81.0%
Result
Calum Ritchie favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Ritchie
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Ritchie
Evans
Last 6: Ritchie 1-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Ritchie
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Ritchie
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ritchie
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (296)
56.2% (477)
-20.1%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
70.0% (10)
-24.5%
On power play, Evans has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Ritchie is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Ritchie shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Home / Away
Ritchie
Evans
Home
37.7% (162)
55.3% (374)
Away
35.2% (145)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Ritchie
Evans
P1
33.3%
58.5%
P2
38.3%
55.7%
P3
37.6%
53.9%
Final 5 min
38.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ritchie
34.0%▲
32.0%
36.5%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Calum Ritchie |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:14 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Jake Evans |