Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Soderberg wins 42.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Soderberg 46.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Soderberg 79.3%
Defensive zone
Soderberg 84.4%
Neutral zone
Soderberg 78.7%
Result
Carl Soderberg favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Soderberg
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Soderberg
O'Reilly
Last 5: Soderberg 0-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Soderberg
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Soderberg
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Soderberg
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Soderberg
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (469)
57.3% (1,073)
-12.1%
Power Play
51.9% (54)
58.5% (258)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
27.8% (18)
50.7% (225)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Soderberg is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Soderberg shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Soderberg
O'Reilly
Home
44.4% (248)
59.2% (765)
Away
46.1% (293)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Soderberg
O'Reilly
P1
44.0%
55.6%
P2
49.2%
61.0%
P3
42.5%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Soderberg
56.0%▲
51.0%
45.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2019 | OT | 01:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |