Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Rowney on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 49.2% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 82.3%
Defensive zone
Rowney 73.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.5%
Result
Carter Rowney favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Rowney
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rowney
Aho
Last 6: Rowney 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Rowney
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
3
0
Rowney
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rowney
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (924)
50.1% (6,619)
-0.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.9% (1,310)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (208)
46.3% (464)
+2.3%
On power play, Aho has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Rowney is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (791).
Rowney shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Rowney
Aho
Home
50.4% (577)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
47.9% (560)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Rowney
Aho
P1
50.1%
51.1%
P2
47.9%
52.0%
P3
49.3%
50.7%
OT
60.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2022 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:29 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |