Casey Mittelstadt vs Joe Thornton
2019-20 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.7% vs Thornton 49.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 61.8%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 57.1%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 57.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Mittelstadt
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Mittelstadt
Thornton
Last 8: Mittelstadt 1-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
Mittelstadt
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
1
0
Mittelstadt
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
5
Mittelstadt
Thornton
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (166)
48.9% (583)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
52.5% (59)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
58.3% (12)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Thornton
Home
44.9% (78)
51.6% (341)
Away
47.7% (107)
47.0% (313)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Thornton
P1
58.5%
53.9%
P2
38.5%
46.9%
P3
41.8%
47.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 17:57 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 01:17 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 04:52 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |