Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 44.9% vs Kelly 49.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 59.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 77.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Henrique
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Henrique
Kelly
Last 10: Henrique 7-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Kelly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Henrique
Kelly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Kelly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (656)
50.0% (456)
-6.2%
Power Play
44.7% (152)
40.0% (5)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (110)
44.9% (118)
+2.4%
On even strength, Kelly has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Henrique is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Henrique shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Henrique
Kelly
Home
45.3% (422)
51.4% (350)
Away
43.5% (496)
45.0% (229)
By Period
Henrique
Kelly
P1
44.3%
46.9%
P2
44.1%
53.6%
P3
45.5%
46.8%
OT
26.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.3%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |