Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Roy 47.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 21-12 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 61.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 79.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 68.3%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Kelly
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
12
(33 meetings)
21
12
Kelly
Roy
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
5
Kelly
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
12
2
Kelly
Roy
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
8
5
Kelly
Roy
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
46.4% (3,031)
+4.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
53.6% (560)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
46.8% (267)
-2.1%
On power play, Kelly has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Home / Away
Kelly
Roy
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Kelly
Roy
P1
49.2%
47.6%
P2
49.1%
46.2%
P3
51.9%
48.5%
OT
53.5%
43.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2015 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 09:31 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 18:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |